Value Betting

Value betting is a tool that allows you to investigate statistically calculated picks in which the probability of the outcome is better than the odds indicate. It will boost your chances of winning and profiting in the long run by revealing favourable odds at several bookmakers.

Value Bets Explained

Value bets are bets that have an advantage over a bookmaker or another user on a betting exchange site. Value is drawn from the financial sector and has the same core concept – as long as a selection is discovered with a lower chance than indicated to occur, also known as a positive value, then there is an opportunity to profit from it.

The practice is finding a bet at odds that gives you the ‘advantage’ over the betting website. You have found a value bet if there is a considerably better possibility of an event occurring than the bookmaker’s odds suggest.

It’s a lot easier said than done! Bookmakers compile their odds lines using complex software and mathematical calculations.

To locate true value bets, you must first grasp the Expected Value.

What Exactly is Expected Value?

The expected value (EV) of a bet indicates how much you ‘expect’ to win per wager on average. It refers to how much you would win or lose if you placed the same wager repeatedly.

Keep in mind that this concept does not take betting offers India into account, so your value will be higher if you play with a bonus.

Calculating the probabilities of a coin toss is an all-time classic example. Assuming the coin is not skewed in any manner, there is an Even money (decimal odds of 2.00) chance of properly naming ‘heads’ or ‘tails’. If you acquire odds of 2.05 on either heads or tails, you have a value bet because the odds represent a higher possibility of winning than the genuine probability.

Calculating the Expected Value (EV)

For example, if the odds for India to win a match against the West Indies are set at 1.45, and you place a 1000 INR bet, you have a potential profit of 450 INR. The odds for West Indies to win is 2.80.

• The winning probability is 100/1.45 = 68.9%, or 0.689 in decimals.
• The losing probability is 100/2.80 = 35.7%, or 0.357 in decimals.

The complete calculation would look like this:

(0.689 * 450) – (0.357 * 1000)
310.05 – 357 = -46.95

For this bet, the EV is negative, and you will, on average, lose 46.95 INR for every 1000 INR staked.

True Probability

It is critical to understand that a negative expected value does not always imply that you will lose in the long run. Unless there is anything drastically wrong, the probabilities for an event like tossing a coin are ‘built-in.’

Unless the coin is damaged or tampered with, the odds of getting a coin toss right should be 2.00. Similarly, unless the wheel is manipulated, the odds of correctly guessing the number on a European roulette wheel should be 38.00.

Non-statisticians may get migraines from the somewhat difficult concept of ‘true’ probability! Don’t worry; we’ll keep it simple by relating it to sports betting!

Highly Subjective

Sports betting odds, unlike a coin toss or a roulette wheel, are highly subjective. Regardless of the market, there will usually always be a tiny difference in the odds of the dozens of bookmakers. Then there’s the issue of bookies manipulating the odds to lessen their responsibility.

If a lot of money is bet on an event, the odds must be reduced to balance the books. Otherwise, if the conclusion is negative, it could be severely harmed. While you are still betting against the bookmaker, you are also betting against other punters if you believe their money is misdirected.

Look for Positive EV

Regardless of what we mentioned about the negative EV, you need a positive EV for long-term value unless there is a bookmaker error.

When it comes to bookmakers, the closest thing to a ‘coin toss’ scenario is when they provide odds on markets like odd/even goals, Asian handicap, or Asian goals.

The Asian markets are a haven for specialists who prefer to trade binary options. For these markets, the bookmaker’s overround is normally at its lowest.

Value Betting Strategies

There are three applicable value betting systems, all of which entail assessing an event’s “actual probability” and evaluating whether you are receiving a positive or negative EV. This topic is covered in greater depth in another post, but here is a quick outline.

➡️ Market Odds

Value and arbitrage betting would not exist in an efficient market. Fortunately, bookmakers are not always correct. Finding markets with a tiny overround is one of the secrets to winning. Asian markets are ideal for this.

Another sensible strategy is to discover bookies who are well-known for compiling odds for specific events. These firms, sometimes known as ‘sharps,’ can serve as your ‘base’ odds while you search for less efficient bookmakers who provide much more generous odds in a market with a relatively modest overround.

➡️ Analyse the event

Aside from market odds, having a deep understanding of the sport, or better yet, a niche area of the sport, is a crucial strategy for discovering value bets. Professional tipsters make a profession by acting as an oracle on a certain market within a sport. Some are superior to others, and if you want to be the next tipster star, you can read our guide on how to become a professional tipster here!

We propose reducing your emphasis if you want to generate a decent profit from sports betting. You can become an expert at locating high-scoring matches in Finland’s Kolmonen (fourth division), or you can learn how to play the Asian goals market like a pro in Germany’s third division.

Whatever option you take, thorough research and perseverance are required; otherwise, you will lose money in the long term. Knowledge about a specific market is required, and the only way to obtain this (without the use of tools) is via time. And it helps if you have an interest for it. If you watch every Premier League match being played, you are more likely to succeed at Premier League betting sites than betting on tennis.

You must also learn how to convert the data you collect into chances. For the record, this procedure is known as ‘forming an odds tissue,’ and it entails calculating the ‘real’ probability of a result based on the components in your research.

➡️ According to Cognitive Bias

Gambler’s Fallacy, Optimism Bias, Ratio Bias, and even a tendency to not wager on the outcome you want are all examples of cognitive bias in betting. Horse racing is primarily a male activity, and female jockeys are still underappreciated.

Rather than focusing on the horse’s chances, chauvinistic punters deny what would otherwise be a good bet because of the female jockey! This is despite extensive research demonstrating that female riders are just as good as their male counterparts.

Avoiding cognitive bias elevates your thinking to a whole new level. There are no biases or emotional attachments; just a commitment to winning based only on what the data shows you.

Value Betting – Final Words

Diving into the concept of value betting can be a valuable choice. The concept is quite simple, but the saying “you have to learn how to walk before you can run” is true also for value bets; learn the basics of sports betting before you try it.

In the long run, the concept should give you a nice profit, but it will take some extra time of your day to look for value bets.

Arjun Jindal | Last Modified: August 4, 2022